Thus Spaketh Idd Salim

FaceBook fast approaching the plateau phase in Kenya

by on Aug.18, 2010, under Symbiotic

It is sad. Honestly, really sad.

I sat with Buju the other day and he asked me : “Salim. Wewe huwezi unda your own Facebook na venye code unaimesea?”. My response is the same respose I once gave DjCK, Okech and Sebi. “Put me in a position that I won’t have to worry about rent for 6 months, and I will give you the world.”

So, the discussion went on. I pointed out that ANYTHING Safaricom touches, turns to a pile of shiite. Mxit has MILLIONS of people all over the world. Safaricom brought it to Kenya, did over 100 pages of color ads, and it died, as expected. Meanwhile, 2Go is keeping Kenyans teens awake till 3am.

Next up, Facebook. In this encouraging post about the opportunities for Kenyan Coders, I did on March 9 2010, Facebook had 580, 000 Kenyans. On its own. No advertising, just viral value additions. Then Safaricom started doing their Ads and USSD codes + TV ads using that smigo-faced ugly rasta jamaa. 5 Months later today, the site has 776, 920 users. Pathetic, if you ask me. Facebook has Stagnated, As soon as SafCom stepped in.

They say EVERYONE IS ON FACEBOOK… Well, we must be the smallest country in the world.

Facebook has STAGNATED since Safaricom touched her

“So”, Buju continued. “Now that ONLY 19.43% of the Kenyans with the Internet are on FB, and the growth is stagnating., what can developers do to harness the massive 81% that is NOT on Facebook?”. I smiled.

“And what is this other system you are saying that is being tested now and will come to really shock Mpesa?”, He asked. I smiled more.

Back to code!

Wazi.

:, , ,

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=500819028 Ngugi Wa Kiarie

    On an absolutely different topic. What do you think of the new Zain offer that is spreading like wildfire?

  • http://twitter.com/smartemwa james mwai

    Some kidogo maths; when was Facebook started? 2004. So between 2004 and 2010 (6) years they gained 580,000 users. thats like 100,000 users per year on average. Between march and now, august, (like 6 months) they gained; 776,920-580,000. Call it like 200,000 users in 6 months. from 100,000 per year (i know the curve may not be not smooth here), to 200,000 in half a year. How is that stagnation Salim???? or am I missing something? This whole story is just a rant. U are trying to attack some other company based on information that is purely shiite!!!! Saying that safcom stepped in and facebook stagnated is so ridiculous that am surprised u wrote and posted it here.

  • http://www.kenyanlyrics.com/mgangagenge Mgangagenge

    I feel sorry for Kenyan coders who have been affected by this disease: nextfacebookosis. A condition characterised by the unhealthy obsession with creating the next Facebook.

  • Iddsalim

    Relax Mzee. 'next facebook' is just a cliche. We will not create a site where people will be poking each other. relax.

  • iddsalim

    I just LOOOVE your responses man.

    One thing I always tell small boys while I am invited for talks is 'A sand-seller will never understand why a farmer is complaining about lack of rain.'

    But I am here to educate the ignorant. So skiza and maybe the next time you want to discuss a social network in front of people who know more and better, you will be in knowledge of something we in social media call 'Critical Mass' and the 'Erection Model'.

    Facebook has reached its tipping point. By now, even 10k users a day is a SMALL and BAD number. Normal evolution demands and actually necessitates duplication. One brings One.

    Facebook reached the 580k numbers 'ikiwa haijulikani'. Now it is even on 20M subscriber handsets. but is going nowhere.

    Now, if this short response has not cooled down your erection for safaricom and allowed you to see my point, then utanisamehe.

  • iddsalim

    Zain and Orange will conquer Safaricom once the number portability starts. These guys have some stuff I cannot disclose publically int he works.

  • kempes

    What Zain does not mention is that the new rates will apply for calls made between 6pm and 6am every day of the week. For more http://bit.ly/cd4yxG

  • http://twitter.com/smartemwa james mwai

    my point was they gained 200,000 users in those five-six months. That does not fit in the definition of stagnation in country like kenya considering they only had 580,000. Your social media understanding seems to be premised on the thinking that social networks growth is uniform in all regions. Facebook may have peaked in developed countries but that may not be the case in kenya going by the little maths i did in my previous comment. What makes your story more of “bull” is your pseudo-statistical argument that safcom stepped in and facebook stagnated yet you fail to clearly demonstrate how.
    Disclaimer: i have no erection for safcom, i don't work for them neither am i their fanboy. it's just that your claims don't hit me as factual.

  • http://twitter.com/smartemwa james mwai

    that story is date May 13 2010 bana…………..

  • iddsalim

    FYI, Facebook started picking in Kenya in mid 2008 [seel : http://www.nickburcher.com/2009/04/facebook-usa… . But incase it makes you feel better, we can say that kenyans were on facebook since 2002.. acha 2004, before it was even developed, to show the world how GREAT Safaricom is.

    It is clear safcom sold their way of thinking to you exactly the way the wanted to and like I always told my ex-girlfriend when we entered an endless loop, “Honey, you win. I am sorry”.

  • iddsalim

    Call rates offer still valid tho. What Kiarie was asking about is the new Zain offer of 1-bob SMS to ANY network.

  • http://twitter.com/smartemwa james mwai

    that's a dead link there. and fyi I never said facebook owes it's growth to safaricom. I don't know and i don't care if safcom in any way has made any kenyans to join facebook.

  • http://www.kenyanlyrics.com/mgangagenge Mgangagenge

    But don't you realise that social sites are just hype. In reality, they're not good business. Facebook ads, despite all their hi-tech, detailed targeting have an conversion rate of about 0.3%. Consider the nature of social site traffic. Those are people who have come to interact with each other. So when you try and monetise those interactions, it ends up looking like a rude interruption rather than something useful.

    Here's an eye-opener from the maker of tripod.com one of the founding fathers of social networking

  • http://www.kenyanlyrics.com/mgangagenge Mgangagenge
  • Alfred

    What about DDI/DID? Direct Dial inward or Direct inward dialing phone numbers. Come to think of it, they will loose on international calls since anyone outside the country will be able to own a kenyan phone number. Not a chance, but that is technology, embrace it.

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